The evolution to enterprise service architecture strategy is a huge bet for SAP, especially if Web services turn out to be more problematic to evolve and take root in enterprises. But, SAP CEO Kagermann is convinced that he is making the right moves:  “I am completely convinced it’s the right architecture for next ten or more years. We have the architecture and application knowledge to do the granularity of enterprise services in the right way. Its not just technology--we deliver an architecture that brings flexibility but still requires that customers select one vendor of choice as a sole control. But within the [framework], you can combine with other components.”

 

The critical point for SAP and its competitors, and more importantly their customers, is the notion of a vendor of choice and sole control. Despite the promise of more interoperable components and composite software composed of elements from a multitude of vendors, customers will follow the path of least resistance and complexity. That means fewer vendors and a few major providers who impact how other products and services are used.

 

We may be moving from client/server to enterprise services, but some things don’t change. The SAPs of the world will increasingly dominate the software business, and the important innovations that sprout from smaller companies could have a more difficult time getting sunlight.